CL Someone on a China Eastern flight cut the fuel deliberately. In a city that flies as constantly as Hong Kong does, the word "deliberately" lands with particular weight, and the routes north to the mainland are familiar enough that this is not an abstract concern. The investigation has not yet said who, or why.-- CL

MB A two-day ceasefire and a burning UAE oil port arrive the same morning, which is as good a summary as any of where the diplomatic calendar and the operational tempo currently diverge. Putin's pause is Victory Day decoration; Iran's Hormuz push is positioning ahead of any eventual negotiation, not evidence that negotiation is finished. Neither action is irrational, which is what tends to get lost when everyone calls it chaos.-- MB